What the 2024 Election Means for Climate Change

While the causes of the shift in the election are unclear, what is clear is that the election will have severe consequences for our climate.The good news is that Washington Initiative 2117 failed, so the Climate Commitment Act (CCA) is safe for now. However, don't be surprised if it is rechallenged, because the CCA will further drive up the cost of motor fuel. Many people still relying on fossil fuel to power their transportation will support repealing the CCA. Fortunately, a wider variety of electric vehicles are coming onto the market, thousands of public charging stations are being installed, and people are learning that charging at home (where electricity is cheap and charging is convenient) covers a significant portion of their electric driving needs.

Thus, the number of people paying for motor fuel will decrease over the next ten years. That is a key goal of the CCA. Tri-Cities Citizens Climate Lobby volunteers will continue to promote electric vehicles and heat pumps as more affordable choices for transportation and heating, particularly with the generous rebates and tax credits from the CCA and the Federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Increased emissions

The bad news is that the election of Donald Trump to the presidency could add 4bn tonnes to U.S. emissions by 2030, which is about 15% of U.S. carbon emissions. A Republican sweep of Congress, which seems very likely, would enable the repeal of the IRA. Citizens Climate Lobby volunteers will work hard to make sure our Republican Congress representatives understand how much their constituents benefit from the jobs created by the IRA and its consumer tax credits and rebates that reduce the cost of electric vehicles and appliances, which cost less to operate. Indeed, a large majority of the IRA funding is going to states controlled by Republicans. In August, 18 House Republicans wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson in support of IRA clean energy tax credits, which comprise more than half of the total IRA spending.

Although Elon Musk actively supports Donald Trump, his Tesla vehicles benefit from those tax credits and rebates. Perhaps Musk could help save the electric vehicle subsidies in the IRA. As a Trump ally, Musk could also increase the appeal of electric vehicles to Republicans. So, it’s not clear how much of the IRA would be repealed, even though Republicans control both houses in Congress and the presidency.

Higher expenses for U.S. residents

Trump’s huge tariffs will prevent the flood of much cheaper Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines into the U.S, which will slow the reduction in prices domestically. Trump will hinder the adoption of such carbon-free technology in the U.S. Biden also placed barriers to those goods (both with tariffs and from lack of IRA subsidies), but those barriers will be much larger now.

In addition to advocating retention of the IRA, we will continue to engage locally, advocating and implementing our Climate Opportunity Action Plan for Benton and Franklin Counties. It draws on funding from the CCA and IRA to pay for infrastructure charging and electrification, which reduces costs for consumers, businesses, and the government.In the meantime, take care of yourselves. We're at a teachable moment. Make good use of it. I’ll say more about that in future columns.

Sources:

Climate scientist Steve Ghan leads the Tri-Cities Chapter of Citizens Climate Lobby.